Lost On The Shore

The Big Waste Disposal Problem

Opponents of nuclear energy frequently cite the problem of 'waste disposal' as their rationale for opposing this energy source.  And it's true that, for various reasons, including political infighting, this problem has not been completely solved.  But the primary alternative to nuclear power doesn't look so good either.

The recent spill of coal ash at Kingston, Tennessee may have finally focused the attention of some on the problems of disposing of the waste from coal-burning power plants.  The spill, which released some 300 million gallons of coal ash sludge and water into the surrounding area and a tributary of the Tennessee river is a disaster for the community, for the environment and for those living downstream who depend on the river for their water supply.

Federal studies have long shown coal ash to contain significant quantities of heavy metals such as arsenic, lead and selenium, which can cause cancer and neurological problems.  The Tennessee Valley Authority, which operates the power plant and is responsible for the coal ash predicably denied there was any problem. 

Yet a 2006 study by the EPA showed that coal ash does contain significant amounts of carcinogens and heavy metals.  The report found that concentrations of arsenic in the coal ash could enter drinking water and increase the risk of cancer several hundredfold. 

United States coal plants produce some 130 million tons of coal ash a year - the second highest waste stream in the country after municipal waste.  A second report by the EPA said that at least 67 towns had their groundwater contaminated by heavy waste from coal ash dumps.  Safe disposal of coal ash is a national problem that needs a solution now. 

But you don't have to travel across the country to find communities impacted by coal ash.  There are problems right here in Maryland an on the Eastern Shore.  In Anne Arundel County in Maryland, residentlal drinking water wells have been polluted by heavy metals, including cadmium, thalium and arsenic, which leached from a sand-and-gravel pit used to dispose of coal ash from a plant run by BG&E.  Right here in Delmarva, the Indian River Power Plant in Millsboro disposes of some 140,000 tons of coal ash in its 144 acre disposal pit on the shores of Indian River - an environmentally sensitive area.  This coal ash contains significant quantities of arsenic and mercury.

The operators of the power plant - NRG Corporation, of course deny that there is any problem, but it's clear that heavy metals from the ash can leach into the ground water and Indian River Bay.  Further, there is epidemiological evidence of a cancer cluster in the area.  While there is no hard evidence linking this cancer cluster to the presence of millions of tons of coal ash here, it's hard not see a potential connection.

The solid waste from coal combustion is not the only problem, of course.  The stuff that goes up the smokestack, primarily carbon dioxide but also small amounts of other chemicals, posses just as intractable a problem.  It's becoming more and more apparent that disposing of huge amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere might just be a big mistake.

And, of course, it's not just when coal is burned that it creates a mess.  Mining companies dump huge amounts of waste in to streams and valleys.  Open pit mines are 'reclaimed' leaving behind something that resembles the surface of the moon.  After the mining is finished, the mines are abandoned.  Communities all over Appalachia are dealing with the hazards of abandoned mines including acid mine drainage, long-lasting underground fires, collapsing terrain and other problems. 

Then, of course, there is the physcial damage to the miners.  Coal mining is one of the most dangerous occupations there is.  Each year hudnreds of miners are killed or seriously injured.  And the miners are in danger even after they stop mining.  Between 2000 and 2004 more than 4,000 coal miners in the United States died from black lung disease, a disease caused by breathing coal dust.  Many more are disabled.

It should be clear that there is no such thing as 'clean coal'.  Coal is dangerous and dirty to mine and transport and there is no current safe solution to the disposal of the waste products from the combustion of coal. We need to move as quickly as possible to stop the large-scale use of coal to generate electricity in this country.

Yet coal is our number one fuel for electricity generation.  How can we replace it?  Many point to renewable sources such as solar, wind energy and hydropower.  But there is only limited additional hyrdropower potential in this country.  Wind and solar energy are promising but they share one major problem and that is their high variability.  The sun shines only during the day and the wind doesn't blow all the time.  The 'capacity ratings' that you hear when people talk about these sources refer to their maximum capacity, which they reach only a small portion of the time.  

The only feasible replacement for the hundreds of coal plants which are progressively contaminating our country and the atmosphere is nuclear power.  True, nuclear has its problems, but it's much, much cleaner than coal, is efficient and cost effective.  It's the only choice we have.

[The photo at the top is of the Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Power Plant]  

Stimulus That Will Benefit Us

It's good to hear that President-Elect Obama is planning on more fiscal stimulus for the American economy and even better to hear that he plans to stimulate the economy by investing in infrastructure rather than just sending out checks to everyone.  We have been ignoring our infrastructure requirements in this country for some time and the results are definitely showing.  So, since I know Barack is reading this blog, here are some suggestions:

High Speed Rail Most other industrialized countries are far ahead of us here.  Japan has been running their Shinkansen 'bullet trains' since 1964.  France began working on their TGV (train à grande vitesse, "high-speed train") in 1976 and the Paris-Lyon line opened in 1981.  The phenomenal success of the TGV has encouraged the French government to build six additional lines and other countries in Europe have built their own high speed networks - the Thalys in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, Eurostar linking Britain to France and Belgium as well as systems in Spain, Italy, Sweden and Norway.  High-speed rail networks are also being built in China, Taiwan and South Korea.

Here in the United States we don't have true high speed rail.  The Acela trains in the Northeast Corridor (Washington-New York-Boston) are called 'high-speed', but track conditions limit them to a top speed of about 125 mph rather than the 200 mph common on true high speed rail.

High speed rail doesn't make sense for much of the United states - the distances are too great to compete with air travel.  However, in the northeast corridor, the Chicago area and possibly the Dallas/Fort Worth/Houston area, high speed rail will produce city-to-city travel times that are considerably less than comparable air service while producing less pollution and being less subject to weather delays.  As an added bonus, the elimination of dozens of flights between Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Boston and New York will do much to reduce air travel delays in the country by reducing congestion in the New York City area.

Construction of these lines will generate thousand of jobs and the construction of the trainsets, signalling equipment and other ancillary requirements will generate thousands more. A $50 billion commitment here will get us off to a good start. 

School Construction States and local jurisdictions have been falling behind on funding the expansion and replacement of existing school buildings.  Many existing school buildings were built in the 1950s and 1960s and need either replacement or substantial renovation.  Further, existing schools are being stretched well beyond capacity.  Temporary classroom buildings are a common sight throughout the country.  Finally, most of our existing schools do not meet today's technological requirements. 

The need is tremendous.  In 1995, the General Accounting Office estimated the backlog of school construction needs at $112 billion.  In 1999, the Education Department estimated the cost at $127 billion.  The National Education Association in 2002 came up with a number of $322 billion including technology improvements.  There's no doubt the backlog has grown.  Right here in my local jurisdiction of 50,000 people there are more than $100 million in unmet needs.  The State of New Jersey estimates a $30 billion backlog in that state alone. 

An investment of $400 billion will go a long way toward eliminating the backlog.  Further it will provide work for thousands of smaller construction firms around the country and for hundreds of thousands of construction workers who are out of work due to the housing slump.  As a bonus, the Department of Energy estimates that such a program would reduce energy costs for schools by some $2 billion a year.

Roads and Bridges We haven't done a good job of maintaining our road system let alone pay for the expansion needed to meet current demand.  Tens of thousands of bridges are deficient, pavement is crumbling all around the country and huge traffic backups are way of life.  A new commitment of $500 billion in Federal money will make a major dent in the backlog here, will stimulate the construction industry all across the country and put many Americans back to work.  There's no reason to delay here.

Mass Transit Along with expanded spending on roads and bridges must come renewed investment into mass transit.  We need our cities to work efficiently.  Like it or not, the vast majority of economic activity in the United States is generated in cities, not in rural areas.  An investment of $100 billion now will generate huge dividends in the future in terms of increased efficiency and lower energy use. In addition, of course, we'll see tens of thosuands of new jobs created. 

Let's start now.  We have no time to lose.

[The photo is of a Eurostar and a Thalys train in the Gare du Nord in Paris]

Don't Cut My Stuff!

The opening of the 2009 session of the Maryland General Assembly is less than two months away and, of course, the maneuvering has already started.  As expected, the early action is all about money.

Over at the Maryland Politics Watch, Adam Pagnucco reports that Rich Madaleno has become chairman of the Montgomery County State Senate delegation.  Madaleno wastes no time in setting out his priorities for the year - make sure Montgomery County doesn't lose any money in the upcoming session.  He wants to be sure that the state formula for funding teacher retirement (which primarily benefits Montgomery County) isn't changed and he wants to be sure that Montgomery County's school construction allocation is not less than the $46 million they receive this year.

The Baltimore Sun reports today that 'education advocates' including the Maryland State Teachers Association, the Maryland Association of Boards of Education and others are already running ads encouraging the General Assembly not to cut state education funding (which has increased by $1.3 billion over the past six years.  In fact, they go beyond advocating that funds not be cut, they want an increase.

Now, readers of this blog know that I support education - it's the key to success in a global economy and the source of much of the prosperity Maryland enjoys.  And certainly Montgomery County has a lot of needs, and their legislative caucus has the clout to get what they want, by and large.

But the state is facing a deficit of $1 billion or more in the coming fiscal year.  When the richest jurisdiction in the state announces that it won't accept any cuts to the largesse it gets from the state, what is the message to the poorer jurisdictions - curl up and die? 

I'm not thinking here of my own county.  Worcester has sufficient resources for the time being even though the county commissioner just postponed $100 million in school renovations due to falling revenue.  $100 million is nothing to sneeze at in a county with only 50,000 residents.  But I'm concerned about Somerset, Dorchester, Garrett, Queen Anne's, Allegany and Caroline counties.  

By and large these counties have average wages between 50% and 60% of the average wage in Montgomery County.  But if we protect the big, wealthy jurisdictions then I guess the small, poor jurisdictions will take it on the chin in the budget game.

It's the same situation with education funding.  Education is critically important.  But primary, secondary and higher education account for about 37% of the state budget.  Protecting the education budget, or even increasing it as the advocates demand would mean that all of the cuts would come somewhere else.  So I guess that means the education advocates want to slash funding for health services for the uninsured and underinsured, cut funding for natural resources and protection of the environment, reduce transportation funding even further and cut funding for public safety.

So let's stop drawing lines in the sand and trying to bully our way to getting a bigger piece of the state pie.  The Governor and the General Assembly are going to have a tough enough time trying to deal with the fiscal realities we are facing.  Don't make it harder.   

Going Down?

As the national and global economies continue to deteriorate, we're fortunate that Maryland is in a better position than most states.  We're relatively wealthy, our economy is largely service based and a steady stream of Federal government expenditures supports much of the state economy. 

Nevertheless, we're definitely going to feel the effects.  A glance at the newspapers over the past couple of days reveals that state tax revenues continue to fall, the unemployment rate continues to climb and foreclosures are still climbing.

Many local jursidictions are taking steps to reduce their expenditures in view of expected revenue reductions in the coming years.  Montgomery County is negotiating with the employee unions to see if they can reduce or defer the pay raises that had been negotiated for the coming year and the county executive has proposed cuts in services.  Baltimore mayor Dixon has announced she will propose up to $200 million in cuts and Prince George's County is looking at possible cuts.

It would be nice to see the jurisdictions here on The Shore being a bit more proactive in looking at cuts.  In less than two months the new legislative session begins and we can be sure that the state is going to further cut support to local governments in an attempt to close the projected state shortfall of $1 billion or more. 

With Maryland's peculiar three-year cycle of real estate appraisal, the local governments have been somewhat insulated from the effects of falling property values, but that's going to change soon.  Because increases in assessments are phased in over three years, assessed values in many jurisdictions appear to be still rising.  But properties assessed in 2006 when values were high will be assessed again in 2009 and it's very likely that there will be a decline in values most places.  Thus the property tax base will begin to decline. 

So keep an eye on the county governments and see what steps they are taking to deal with the issue.  The sooner they start, the better.

Sidetracked

Well, it looks as thought the bid by the Club For Growth to put their man, Andy Harris, into Congress, may have been sidetracked.  After the first round of counting absentee ballots, Democrat Frank Kratovil's lead has increased to 2,003 votes.  Tomorrow the election boards will look at provisional ballots and then go on to count the remaining absentee ballots.  At this point it doesn't appear as though there are enough of these to help Andy Harris overcome Kratovil's lead.  Indeed, the Associated Press has called the race for Kratovil.

The First District was designed to be a Republican District.  Before this election, the Republicans had held the seat for 18 years.  A large majority of state legislative seats in the District are held by Republicans.  So how did Kratovil manage to eke out a victory?  Everyone has their opinion, of course.  Michael Swartz over at Monoblogue has this interesting take on the election.  I see four factors that led to Kratovil's apparent victory.

First, of course, is the defeat of Wayne Gilchrest in the primary.  Gilchrest was a moderate Republican who was much loved by many on The Shore, Republican and Democrat alike.  His defeat in the primary but the more right-wing Andy Harris with substantial out-of-state financial support was disheartening to many Eastern Shore voters and opened the door to a Democratic challenge.  

Second is the candidacy of Barrack Obama.  While John McCain handily won the Eastern Shore jurisdictions, Obama's candidacy bought a surge of new voters and bought many to the polls that may not have voted otherwise.  It appears that a large number of African-American voters, in particular, may have provided the margin to help push Kratovil over the top.

Kratovil was able to compete financially with Harris.  With Gilchrest out of the race, Kratovil was able to attract funds from the DCCC and other national sources to offset the resources that Harris was able to get from out of state.  If Gilchrest had won the primary, Kratovil would never have gotten that money and it would have been no contest, like many in the past.

Of course, having the Libertarian Candidate, Davis, in the race helped too.  If Andy Harris had gotten those votes, he would have been victorious.  

Republicans seem to think that Frank Kratovil is going to lay down a liberal voting record in Washington that will help defeat him in two years.  I don't think so; Frank seems to me to be a more conservative, 'Blue Dog', Democrat who will build a moderate voting record, splitting with his party when necessary to reflect the temper of his district.  In 2010, with two years of incumbency behind him, he will be in a stronger spot to defend his seat, particularly if he couples a moderate voting record with good constituent service and good fundraising.

After 2010, of course, the situation will change.  The surge in Democratic registrations this year will provide some flexibility to shift more Democratic voters into the First District when redistricting rolls around.  

So, for now, let's keep our fingers crossed that the AP is right and the 2,003 margin holds up.  Then we can take some time to relax and hopefully savor a victory before we start to look at 2010. 

The Voters Have Decided

It was an exhausting campaign that seemed to go on forever, but the voters have spoken (although it's not clear in some cases what they say) and it's time to look ahead.

Slots

After many years there is finally a clear decision that we will have slot machines in Maryland.  The vote was not close; slots won in every jurisdiction with a 400,000 vote margin statewide.  The issue now moves to implementation.  The Governor is already moving to identify and appoint commission members who will oversee the bidding for the licenses.  In Baltimore, the city has already moved to purchase land in South Baltimore which the city hopes will be used for a casino there.

Those opposed to slots haven't given up, of course.  There are going to be zoning battles and other rear-guard actions.  The fact that slots won in every jurisdiction, though, is going to give local politicians pause in how hard they can fight to delay the inevitable.  In Anne Arundel County, for example, slots won overwhelmingly, as they did in Baltimore City, Allegany County and Cecil County.  Here in Worcester, it was a little tighter although there was a majority in favor of slots.  

The state is going to have to be very open and transparent in how they issue regulations, select operators and manage the process.  Any hint of collusion or back room deals could delay things for a long time.

Early Voting

The constitutional amendment to allow early voting also passed by a large margin.  To me it seems that the primary effect of this will be in the large jurisdictions of the Western Shore where voters frequently encounter large lines on election day.  Given the busy lives that many live, the ability to choose one of several days on which to vote seems as though it will make life a bit easier and perhaps improve turnout.  Since the large jurisdictions are primarily Democratic, it will likely improve Democratic margins statewide, but it's hard to tell how much.  I guess we'll find out in 2010.

First District

It's definitely a nail-biter here.  As expected, Frank Kratovil did well on the Eastern Shore while Andy Harris did better on the Western Shore - particularly in Harford County.  Kratovil's 900 vote margin in Tuesday's voting will have to withstand more than 28,000 absentee ballots that have been returned in the district.  Registered Dems outnumber Republicans by about 300 in the number of returned ballots and the majority of the ballots are from the Eastern Shore, where Kratovil led in every county in Tuesday's voting.  While counting might continue for several more days as more ballots arrive, chances are we'll know the winner tonight.  I'm hoping Frank will pull it out - I think the odds are in his favor.

Presidential Voting

Barack Obama received 61.4% of the votes on Tuesday compared to 37.0% for John McCain.  As expected, Obama's huge margins in Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Montgomery County, Prince George's County and Howard County overwhelmed McCain wins in the smaller jurisdictions. 

The impact of the large number of newly registered voters was felt across Maryland, though, as John McCain trailed George Bush's 2004 share of the vote in virtually every jurisdiction.  The Republican Party is going to have to rethink its strategy if it is going to have any chance in 2010 to win a statewide office or elect a significant number of state legislators.  It will be interesting to watch. 

Final Voter Registration Numbers

The Maryland State Board of Elections has released the final voter registration numbers for next week's election and the numbes are encouraging.

With strong voter registration efforts by both parties this year, the number of voters registered in Maryland has increased by 320,247 this year to a total of 3,430,364.  This represents an increase of more than 10% in less than a year.  The bulk of the newly registered voters - 227,770 - listed themselves as Democrats while only 41,882 registered as Republicans.  An additional 50,595 were affiliated with one of the smaller parties or registered as independent.  

This is more bad news for the Republican party in Maryland.  The number of Republican voters increased by only 4.7% while the Democratic voters were up by 13.3%, slightly expanding the more than 2 to 1 lead Democrats have in the state.

As expected, the five largest jurisdictions in the state - Montgomery, Prince George's, Baltimore and Anne Arundel Counties and Baltimore City - accounted for the bulk of new registrations.  Together they signed up 222,923 new voters.  The vast majority of these - 175,779 - were Democrats while the Republicans counted only 18,745 new voters in these jurisdictions.  

Here on the Lower Shore, the trend was the same although the numbers were much, much smaller and the Democratic dominance not quite as great.  Somerset, Wicomico and Worcester counties signed up 5,812 new voters together.  Of these, 3,311 registered as Democrats and 1,133 registered as Republicans - almost a 3 to 1 Democratic lead in this supposedly conservative part of the state.  

All of this, of course, is going to make it even more difficult for Republicans to be any kind of political force in Maryland.  Their tiny representation in the Maryland legislature is going to grow even smaller - even more so as redistricting after 2010 moves more seats to the big counties on the Western Shore - already Democratic strongholds.  

Perhaps the Republican Party in Maryland should rethink their strategy of throwing out anyone but the most extreme conservatives and allow some moderate voices into the party.  It would certainly be a breath of fresh air and might bring back some of the voters who have been alienated by the relentless negativity.  But, as long as people like Bob Ehrlich and Andy Harris continue to run the party, I don't think the Dems have much to worry about on a statewide level.

Maryland Voter Registrations Surge

Voter registrations continue to surge in Maryland and most of the surge is going in the Democrats' direction as recent numbers from the Maryland State Board of Elections confirm. 

As of October 15, there were 3,360,846 registered voters in Maryland of which 1,898,571 were registered as Democrats and 919,240 as Republicans with the remainder being either independent or members of smaller parties.  This represents an increase of 83,622 registered voters just since September 19. 

Those 83,622 voters include 58,099 registered as Democrats and 10,090 registered as Republicans - a stunning advantage of more than 5 to 1 over the last 26 days.  Projections by the Board of Elections indicate that, for the full year, Democratic registrations will outnumber Republican registrations by about 3 to 1. 

Indeed, the interest in this election has generated a very high number of new registrations.  Hopefully the Board of Elections has deployed enough voting machines and election workers to accomodate all those who wish to vote.

With turnout expected to be very high, it's important that there be enough machines and election workers to allow everyone to vote.  This is particularly important in areas such as Prince George's County which registered almost 17,000 new voters in the last 26 days.

Montgomery County registered almost 15,000 new voters during the same period and Baltimore City registered nearly 11,000.

Here on the Lower Shore, the numbers are much smaller. In Worcester County, 730 new voters were registered between September 19 and October 15.  318 are Democrats and 264 are Republican.  In Wicomico County there have been 1,154 registrations during the period including 669 new Dems and 269 new Republicans.  Over in Somerset, of 262 new voters, 173 are Dems and only 53 are Republican.

Of course, as others have pointed out, these new registrations affect not only this election but the state and local elections coming up in two years.  Former Governor Ehrlich, who indicates he wants a rematch with Martin O'Malley, will have that much harder a time.  And Republican chances of gaining ground in the state legislature will be that much slimmer. 

[Note: the painting Canvassing For Votes was done by William Hogarth in 1755 and is one of his series of four on The Humours of an Election.]

Winter Is Coming

We know both from the calendar and from the changes in the weather that winter is on the way.  On top of the economic problems we already face, the Energy Information Administration has already issued warnings that the cost of many heating fuels will be higher this winter than the last.  Homeowners that heat with oil will face bills that will be about $450 higher than last year and those who heat with electricity, natural gas or propane will also face increases.  On top of that, there are indications that this winter could be colder than last winter, particularly in the east.

We should begin planning now to prepare our homes for the winter so that we can keep our bills within reason and do what we can to conserve energy.  But many Marylanders lack the resources to weatherize their homes and may be faced with heating bills this winter that they cannot manage.

  Fortunately the state Office of Home Energy Programs offers assistance in a number of ways for low-income Marylanders.  The Maryland Energy Assistance Program offers assistance with home heating bills.  They also offer limited assistance in repairing or replacing broken furnaces.  The Electric Universal Service Program offers assistance to low income customers with electric bills.  The Weatherization Assistance Program offers help to certain low income residents for things such as weather stripping, caulking, plastic window covers, etc. 

Information on all these programs can be found here.  On the Lower Shore you can contact your local Shore Up! office.  Shore Up! is the coordinator of home energy programs for the Lower Shore.  You can also find information and apply for these programs at your county social services office. 

The economy is bad; lots of people are without work and energy costs are high.  But these shouldn't be a reason for going without heat this winter.  If it looks like you or your neighbor might not be able to afford to heat your house this winter, contact the Energy Assistance Program now.  Help is available.

[The painting was done in 1839 by Andreas Achenbach and is in the Hermitage Museum in St. Petersburg]

The Race Goes On

With just about a month until election day, there are a few things that seem clear.

In the Presidential race, Obama/Biden will win in Maryland and win big.  Of course, this was a foregone conclusion from the beginning and neither party has mounted a presidential campaign here because of that.  Obama's lead seems to be growing, though and he seems to be doing well in the neighboring states of Pennsylvania and Virginia.  He has a solid lead in Delaware.  West Virginia could go to McCain, but much depends on the economy.

On a congressional level, seven of Maryland's eight seats seem to be safe for incumbents.  The only question is in the First District.  Here Frank Kratovil and Andy Harris are campaigning hard to succeed Wayne Gilchrest.  At this point, it looks as though Kratovil will do well on the Eastern Shore, but Andy Harris will do well in the portion of the district on the Western Shore.  Polling seems to be very close.  The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has put a lot of money into the race and we'll see if that makes a difference in the home stretch.

Both parties are working actively to register voters and provide grass-roots support.  It's instructive to look at voter registration numbers.  As of October 2, there were 193,223 registered Democrats and 189,858 registered Republicans in the District.  Another 67,155 were either unafilliated or registered to a smaller party.   In the past six days (since 9/26) 669 voters had newly registered as Democrats in the district while 471 had newly registered as Republicans.  Voter turnout is expected to be high - more than 80% of registered voters.  Last minute registrations and get out the vote efforts might prove to be crucial in this race.  The registration deadline to vote in the general election is October 14 at 9:00 pm.

The big question on the ballot this year will be a referendum on approving the licensing of slot machines in Maryland.   Lately the opponents have been waging a shrill campaign against the question (I get two or three e-mails a day from them).  Supporters have been relatively quiet.  It will be interesting to see if the fiscal problems in Maryland at both the state and local levels brings out more support in the next month.  It's amusing to see former Governor Bob Ehrlich, who strongly supported slots when he was governor try to justify his opposition to them now as something other than raw political jealousy.  At this point I'm betting (wagering? gambling? venturing?) that the question will pass, but it won't be as easy as it looked six months ago.