Lost On The Shore

What Kind of Jobs, What Kind of Education

Bernie Hayden, over at Maryland On My Mind, writes a nice post about jobs and education questioning whether our education system is preparing people for the jobs that are available.  There are plenty of careers where there are far more jobs than qualified people to fill them.  Two stand out here in Maryland - education and nursing.  Let's start with nursing.

The Maryland Hospital Association reported that the vacancy rate in the nursing profession was thirteen percent last year.  In a few years, Maryland's nursing shortage could reach 10,000 positions, just as those aging baby boomers begin to increase the demand for skilled nurses.  We're producing fewer trained nurses than we need and can't seem to retain the ones we have.  This is very costly because hospitals must bring in agency nurses from outside at a very high cost. 

The demand is real.  One of my daughters, I'm happy to say, recently graduated from nursing school in Maryland, passed her licensing exam and received her RN license.  But even before she graduated, she had a job offer from a large Maryland hospital with a good signing bonus.  Of course, it was a long time getting there.   

In education, Maryland colleges and universities annually produce only about half the teachers that Maryland schools require. More than half of new teachers leave the profession within the first five years.  This is very costly because of the substantial investment school districts make in recruiting and initial training. 

So what can be done?  The state recognizes the problems with the nursing shortage.  My daughter received grants to cover her tuition on the condition that she work in a Maryland hospital one year for each year's tuition reimbursement she got.  This seems like a reasonable deal for the state and for the hospitals and last year the Governor increased the amount of money the Higher Education Commission has to offer these grants. 

Of course, to get tuition reimbursement, one has to get into a nursing school to begin with and there is a problem there.  Nursing schools in Maryland are having a great deal of difficulty finding and retaining faculty.  In February, the Governor announced an additional $3.4 million allocation to the Maryland School of Nursing to hire additional faculty and expand their program.  Still, there will be far more qualified applicants than openings in Maryland's nursing schools.

In education, the problem seems to be more one of retention.  If the 50% quit rate in the first five years could be substantially reduced, it would greatly reduce the need for expensive teacher recruitment programs.  Surprisingly, according to the Maryland State Teachers' Association, the problem is not inadequate salaries, but inadequate support for new teachers during their first few years on the job.  While it will require a greater investment to support teachers in their early years, this will have a significant payoff in greater retention down the road.

Now, as the 1917 poster above shows, the nursing shortage has been an issue for some time.  And I remember the teacher shortage being an issue when I was young.  But that's no excuse for ignoring these problems.  As I've written many times before, a well-educated and trained workforce is one of the best things Maryland has going for it.  We need to make sure that continues to be the case.   

Oil Follies

Certainly one of the issues on everyone's mind these days is the price of gasoline and the price of oil.  The runup in the price of both over the past couple of years has everyone wringing their hands and looking for solutions.  Every politician from the local dogcatcher to the President of the United States (and more importantly, the King of Saudi Arabia) has either come up with a plan to address the 'oil crisis' or is working on one. 

Andy Harris, the Republican nominee for Congress in Maryland's First District recently released his plan.  As I understand it, the plan includes:

1. Temporarily suspending the Federal and state gasoline taxes from Memorial Day to Labor Day.
2. Temporarily reducing the 40+ gasoline blends used in the United States to four blends in an effort to simplify refining and improve the efficiency of refining and transporting gasoline.
3. Opening the Arctic National Wildlife Preserve, the Aleutian Islands and the US continental shelf to oil and gas production.
4. Increase long-term oil refining capacity by establishing fast track approval for new and expanded refineries.
5. Provide incentives for technological innovations in alternative forms of energy such as nuclear, solar, geothermal, and cellusolic ethanol.

Before analyzing the plan, let's take a look at the background of the problem. 

World Petroleum Production and Consumption (Millions of BBL/day)

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Production	79.6	83.1	84.6	84.6	84.6
Consumption	79.6	82.3	83.7	84.6	85.4

These figures are from the US Energy Information Administration.  Note that production has stagnated since 2005 while world consumption has continued to grow.  Consumption by industrialized countries (OECD members) in 2007 was basically the same as it was in 2003 - a little under 49 million barrels a day.  Consumption in other countries, however, increased from about 31 million barrels a day in 2003 to 36.4 million barrels a day in 2007.  Every indication is that the demand from non-OECD members will continue to increase.  Demand in China, with its 2 billion citizens and India with its billion or so will continue to grow at a rapid rate.  Demand in the former USSR is also growing. 

Production, on the other hand, isn't increasing at all.  While new fields are coming on line, in the Caspian Sea area for example, and new discoveries are being made, they are insufficient to overcome the long-term decline of three to four percent in the production of existing fields.

Many blame speculators for increasing the price of oil by driving up demand and, in fact, they do contribute to some of the wild fluctuations and instability in the market, but they never actually take delivery of the oil and thus don't contribute to the ultimate demand.  So what we really have is a growing imbalance between a static supply and a growing demand that is driving prices higher.

With that in mind, let's take a look at Andy Harris's proposed energy plan.

First he proposes eliminating the gasoline tax - both Federal and state - between Memorial Day and Labor day.  This will have the effect of increasing demand but will do nothing to boost supplies.  In addition, of course, hundreds of millionss of dollars that should be used to ease traffic bottlenecks, maintain roads and expand mass transit will be lost.  Sure the price might drop a bit initially, but will creep back up as demand returns and we'll have nothing to show for it.  I've written about it before, but I have to say it again - this is a bad idea.

Second, he wants to reduce the 40 or so different gasoline blends in the United States to 4 - he doesn't say how.  The reason these different blends exist is to mitigate air quality problems in many large metropolitan areas around the United States.  They are designed to reduce emissions of volatile organic compounds which, combined with sunlight, produce ozone.  Some also are formulated to reduce emission of nitrogen oxides which pollute air and waterways and can contribute to acid rain.  Certainly a reduction in the number of blends will reduce transportation and storage costs for the oil companies.  The effect on consumer costs is uncertain.  Many of the blends cost more to produce than conventional gasoline but pollute less.  It's hard for me to see how this will save money for consumers without increasing ozone pollution in our metropolitan areas.  I don't see any additional production or reduced demand from this.

Third, he wants to open the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR), the Aleutian Islands and the US Continental shelf to exploration.  The US Geological Survey estimates that there are between 7 and 8 billion barrels of recoverable oil in ANWR.  The Energy Information Administration estimates that opening ANWR to production would result in a peak production of 780,000 barrels per day in 2027 which would reduce the price of a barrel of oil by about 75 cents - not quite two cents per gallon. 

I have no idea how much recoverable oil is in the Aleutian Island area - I haven't been able to find much about it.  It appears certain there are significant amounts of recoverable crude oil in the unexplored parts of the US continental shelf - perhaps more than exist in ANWR.  Americans need to decide what kinds of risks they want to take to obtain additional domestic oil supplies - even if they are small compared to our imports.  It's worth noting, though, that we seem unwilling to allow even wind turbines to be built offshore, much less oil platforms, pipelines, etc. that would come with significant oil production.  This proposal does add something to production, albeit not for ten or fifteen years at the earliest.  

Fourth, he wants to increase long-term refining capacity in the United States, presumably by eliminating some of the environmental and safety reviews that are now required.  Refining is an interesting problem.  Over the past year, the price of oil has increased much faster than the price of gasoline, sharply reducing the profits levels of refineries.  Oil companies like Valero and Sunoco which refine oil but don't produce it have dropped sharply over the past year.  As a result refiners are shifting their operations to produce more distillate (diesel and heating oil) which has a relatively high price and less gasoline from each barrel.  

Harris's proposal ignores the real problem with refining - it's not consistently profitable.  If companies can't earn a reliable and fair return on investment in new refinery capacity, none will be built, regardless of any loosening of regulations.  I don't see anything here which will alter the supply/demand relationship.

Fifth, he wants to provide incentives for technological innovations in alternate forms of energy.  I'm all for this, provided the incentives don't turn into long-term subsidies.  We need to find alternatives and, in the long run, this will help to reduce demand for petroleum and all that comes with it.

So what does all this do for Marylanders and the voters of the First District?  Not much in the short term except for the ridiculous and self-defeating gas tax holiday.  But maybe there's not much that can be done in the short term.  I do note that Harris's proposals contain nothing about mass transit or public transportation, nothing about smart growth that would reduce transportation needs, nothing about increasing corporate fleet mileage requirements and nothing about alternative fuels such as the plug-in hybrids being developed by General Motors and Toyota and the hydrogen fuel cell car recently introduced by Honda, but that may be too much to ask.

[The photo (click on it to see the large version0 is of the Thunderhorse production platform built by BP at a cost of about $1 billion.  It was struck by hurricane Dennis in 2005 before it was in production and partially capsized due to a construction error.  It's a reminder that there are risks to offshore drilling and production that need to be balanced against the potential rewards]  

 

Wealthy Maryland? - 3

Average incomes on the Shore and in Western Maryland are much lower than in the Baltimore/Washington corridor and poverty rates are, by and large, higher.  What, if anything, can or ought to be done about that?  Not surprisingly, I have some suggestions.

I've written often here about the relationship between education and income.  Maryland, as a whole, has one of the highest household incomes of any state in the union and also has one of the highest rates of educational attainments.  That's no coincidence.  Many companies choose to locate in Maryland, despite its relatively high cost, because of its highly-educated and productive workforce. 

But almost all of those companies locate in the wealthier sections of Maryland - not on the Shore and not in Western Maryland.  There are a couple of reasons for this - the workforce they need is there and major government installations - NIH, the Food and Drug Administration, Fort Meade and NSA and Aberdeen Proving Grounds are all in the area.  For years, these areas forged ahead because their excellent school systems produced the kinds of workers that high tech industry needed and because of the presence of these important magnets.  The presence of major universities at College Park and Johns Hopkins in Baltimore helped too.

With the approval of the Thornton program, the state began to provide substantially increased funding to schools in the poorer parts of the state and there has been considerable progress in those areas.  Recently, for example, Ocean City Elementary School, here in Worcester County, became the first school in the state in which every student passed the state achievement tests - certainly something to be proud of.

But education by itself isn't enough.  Plenty of bright and well-educated students graduate from school on the Shore, go away to college and never come back - primarily because the kind of jobs they're looking for don't exist here.  So the kind of industry that provides good, high-paying jobs won't locate on the Shore because the workforce they need isn't here.

A couple of days ago the Governor unveiled a proposal for the state to spend as much as $1.1 billion over the next ten years to attract and support biotech firms in Maryland.  That's a good thing, I guess.  The state is uniquely positions to become a 'biotech hub' with the National Institutes of Health, the Food and Drug Administration, Johns Hopkins University and the army's biological warfare center at Fort Detrick all within about forty miles of each other.  But how much of that money will support new or existing industry on the Shore or in Western Maryland - areas where income is lowest and the needs greatest?  None.

So what can be done?  I think there are a number of things.  First, the state should provide a bit more support for infrastructure development.  The Rural Broadband Initiative is currently building a fiberoptic line linking Wallops Island, Salisbury and the Western Shore.  This will bring true high speed internet to many parts of the Shore that don't have it now.  There's also investment needed in other areas.

Second, the state should invest some money to capitalize on the presence of the two universities on the Shore.  The Shore is an ideal place to expand their environment and marine biology programs to eventually  serve as magnets for companies in those areas. 

Third, the governor should establish a small office to focus on the Shore and on Western Maryland.  The announcement about the biotech initiative is a good example of how these regions get left out of things - not out of malice but simply because they are overlooked by those whose focus is solely on the Baltimore/Washington corridor.  By having an advocate for these regions in the executive branch, there's a better chance we won't be overlooked.

And fourth, the influx of retirees to the Shore should not be overlooked. Rural life has its charms and here on the Shore, where there are plenty of quiet bays, rivers and creeks, life can be quite pleasant.  The retirees bring money and a heighted demand for medical services which provides some good-paying jobs. 

So let's all recognize and applaud the high incomes that many Marylanders enjoy, but let's not forget those who don't share in the wealth.

[ Boating  was painted by Edoard Manet in 1874.  The original hangs in the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City]

 

Wealthy Maryland?

 We were all pleased to see the announcement from the Census Bureau last year that Maryland had become the wealthiest state in the country as measured by median household income ($65,144) - edging out New Jersey and Connecticut.  At the other end of the list, Mississippi ($34,473), West Virginia and Arkansas were the poorest.  I've often written here about how the high levels of educational attainment in Maryland contribute to our relatively high incomes.

But not everyone in Maryland is pulling down those high salaries.  There are significant differences regional differences as well as a wide spectrum of income even in the wealthier jurisdictions.  Let's start by taking a look at salaries. 

According the the Bureau of Labor Statistics the average wage in Maryland in the third quarter of 2007 (the last period I could find county by county data) was $892 per week - a good wage and significantly higher than the national average.  But that statewide average hides wide regional variations. 

The highest wages in Maryland are, not surprisingly, in Montgomery County where the average wage is $1,090/week.  Second place is St. Mary's County at $989/week.  I suspect the high average there is due to a relatively low employment level and the increased employment at Patuxent River NAS and surrounding defense contractors.  Howard County at $945/week, Baltimore City at $937/week and Prince George's County at $901/week round out the top five.

Now let's look at the other end.  The lowest average weekly salary in Maryland is right here in Worcester County at $484/week followed by Garrett County all the way at the other end of the state at $514/week.  Allegany County at $580/week, Dorchester County at $603/week and Caroline County at $617/week round out the bottom five. You can find the rest of the numbers here. 

The pattern is easy to see.  The highest salaries are, by and large, in the Baltimore/Washington corridor.  The lowest salaries are in Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore. 

Of course, average salaries don't tell the whole story.  Baltimore City, which has one of the highest average salaries in the state also has the highest poverty rate.  We'll look at that and more in my next post.

[Note:  I'm sorry for the long delay in posting.  We had an unexpected and tragic death in the family.]

  

The Heart of Maryland

 Summer is upon us and lots of Marylanders will be heading to the Eastern Shore this weekend, perhaps to do a little boating.  More precisely, a lot of Marylanders will be heading for the beaches this weekend.  For many, the Eastern Shore is just a place they have to get through between the Bay Bridge and the beaches. 

Maryland is a small state in area (we're number 42!) relatively wealthy and highly educated.  But these generalities hide wide diversity in population density, income levels, education, culture and, of course, politics. 

Let's take a look at some numbers.  According to the Census Bureau, the population of Maryland was about 5.6 million in 2006 (we're number 19!).  But the population is heavily concentrated in the Baltimore/Washington area (eight counties plus Baltimore City) which account for 4.6 million of the 5.6 million - a little more than 82 percent. Western Maryland, Southern Maryland, the Upper Eastern Shore and the Lower Eastern Shore together have a population of a little under a million in fifteen counties.  Fewer than 200,000 people live in the four counties of the Lower Eastern Shore.

Almost all of the money seems to be in the Baltimore/Washington area too.  in 2005, per capita personal income in the Baltimore region was about $41,339.  In the Washington region it was $47,096.  By contrast, per capita personal income in Western Maryland was $29,045 and here on the Lower Shore it was only $30,062.

Of course, political power goes with the population and the money.  Of the 47 members of the Maryland State Senate, for example, 3 are from the Eastern Shore, 2 from Western Maryland.  So the result is that decisions that primarily affect the Eastern Shore are usually made by people from Montgomery County and Baltimore. 

This year, the ban imposed by the state on commercial clamming in the coastal bays goes into effect.  The most recent legislative session produced a law strengthening the Critical Areas Act, which governs shoreline development.  The state has imposed new restrictions on the crabbing industry and is preparing to impose more regulations on the poultry industry. 

Now don't get me wrong, I support all of these.  But I'm not from here.  If these laws and regulations, which primarily affect the Eastern Shore, were put to a vote here, they would all fail by large margins.  The reality is, that despite the heroic efforts of the few legislators we send to Annapolis, we are basically a colony - governed benevolently by the fine people of the Baltimore/Washington area who no doubt know what's good for us and have our best interests at heart.

And make no mistake; we're grateful when they send us a few bucks to build a little piece of road or part of a school.  It's the first weekend of the summer and we're happy to have you visiting.  We can certainly use whatever money you can leave here because wages are low, poverty is high and, for many on the Shore, things are getting decidely worse.  I'll have more on that in my next post.

[The image is of a painting by Edouard Manet - "Boating" - completed in 1874 and found in the Metropolitan Museum in New York City]   

And The Hits Just Keep On Coming

Pilgrim's Pride is the latest chicken producer to report a loss.  The report by this company, the largest chicken producer in the country, follows the loss reported by Tyson Foods, the world's largest meat producer, of a loss for the third quarter.  Purdue Farms, the largest poultry producer on the Shore, is privately held and doesn't report profit and loss, but I would be surprised if they were not struggling also.

The primary culprit in each case is high grain prices with some contribution from high energy prices and transportation costs.  The companies have been unanimous in blaming flawed government ethanol policies for contributing to the higher cost of grain.  To a significant extent, they are right.  The huge subsidies for ethanol production has led to an explosion in the number of ethanol plants that now suck up about a quarter of our total corn production.  Further, the demand for corn has led many farmers to shift production out of wheat and other grains into corn.

This demand, coupled with crop failures overseas and increased demand from rapidly developing countries like India and China has sent grain prices up substantially and has affected the price of many other foodstuffs.  But anyone who shops for food already knows that. 

On top of all this, of course, the congress is prepared to pass a wasteful and grossly inflated farm bill which will increase subsidies to farmers and significantly increase consumer prices for many things.  But I digress.

It seems that a cutback in poultry production may be coming and that will be just another hit for the Eastern Shore, where the economy is already hurting due to the sharp decline in residential housing construction.  With the cost of gasoline more than $3.50 a gallon, it's likely we will see a reduction in tourism too.  We already know the crabbing industry is taking a hit. 

So it could be a difficult year here on the Shore.  We'll have to see what comes next.

The Other Energy Problem

I've written a lot about the electricity supply problems in Maryland (and I'll write more) but there's a problem with another kind of energy that is affecting us all.

The photo above was taken in June of 1941, a few months before Pearl Harbor and the entrance of the United States into World War II.  But diesel at six and half cents a gallon and gasoline at fourteen and a half cents a gallon are distant memories for us now.  As I write this, regular gasoline is $3.45 a gallon and diesel is $4.29 a gallon in my area.  The gasoline price is a bit less than the national average and the diesel price is a bit above the national average.

Despite the huge runup in gasoline prices over the past couple of years, it doesn't seem to have affected demand; according to the Energy Information Administration's weekly report gasoline demand last week was 9.215 million barrels a day - up from 9.163 million barrels a day one year ago.  Of course, in the long term, the high price will reduce demand as people buy more fuel efficient vehicles, but that doesn't help us now.  The reality is that many people have already cut their gasoline consumption as far as they can. 

I believe higher petroleum prices are here to stay, too.  Growing demand in the expanding economies of China and India is going to continue.  The New York Times carries an interesting article today about the demand for new cars in those two countries.  New vehicle sales in China are expected to exceed six million this year (up from under a million in 2000) and two million in India.  The huge populations of those countries are going to drive an increased demand for cars and other forms of energy-related consumption.

So the question is how do we live with it?  Here in Maryland, there seem to be few alternatives to driving to your destination and the high levels of road congestion lead to more gasoline consumption, not less.  Here on the Shore, there are very limited alternatives to driving.  The nearest department store for me is a 60 mile round trip from my house.  For many others, it's even further.  On the Western Shore, with the suburbs of Washington now reaching Frederick and beyond, many face hours-long commutes to their jobs over inadequate roads.

We have oriented our economy toward driving everywhere.  There is some concern over in Ocean City about what the gas prices will mean for the summer season.  Realistically, there is no way to get to the resort except to drive and, with gasoline prices, food prices and electricity prices all weighing on us, how many will be able or willing to drive the distance and pay the prices for a week at the beach?

And what to do when you get here?  The Worcester County Times (I know, everyone's favorite newspaper) carries an article today on the effect of the high prices on boating and fishing community.  Some of the large headboats and charter fishing boats are looking at costs of up to $20,000 to fill up their tanks!

It would be nice to see the state exercising some leadership here.  We need to move our development strategy away from sprawl and toward more transit-oriented development.  I know our leadership keeps talking about 'smart growth', but in reality, they're just cheerleading.  Because responsibility for zoning and regulation of development are so fragmented in the state, there is no real coherent policy with any any teeth.

And it would be nice to see the state do more to develop alternatives to us having to drive everywhere.  Of course, with the bulk of the state's transportation budget being spent on the Intercounty Connector, money for mass transit is scarce, despite the fact that existing mass transit facilities are being overwhelmed by demand.

Our governor and our legislature can't do anything about the fuel prices - that's something beyond their control.  What they can do is to exercise some leadership to reduce Maryland's dependence on cars and gasoline to meet our transportation needs.  We need to start now.    

Legislation and The Shore

With a little less than a week to go in this session of the General Assembly, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at where we stand on new legislation and particularly, how that legislation might affect the Eastern Shore.

Criminal Justice

There hasn't been a lot of activity in this area.  The highly-anticipated drive to repeal the death penalty stalled and the General Assembly voted to have yet another study instead.  As long as our legislators are afraid to vote on this we'll keep having studies but, of course, we won't actually execute anyone either, satisfying no one.  The legislature did vote to expand DNA testing, with the important caveat that DNA records will be destroyed if the accused is not convicted.  They did pass a bill to increase penalties for those that provide alcohol to minors. 

I don't think any of these will have a disproportionate effect on us here on the Shore.  Of course, in a couple of months hordes of graduating high school seniors will be descending on Ocean City, many carrying suitcases that are suspiciously heavy - as though they contain beverages.  So maybe those new penalties for providing alcohol to minors will have an impact here.  But the legislature is also working on a bill to classify those sugary-sweet alcopops as 'beer' so they'll be taxed at a lower rate.  Maybe they support teen drinking after all...or at least the liquor lobby does.

Environment

It looks as though legislation to strengthen the Critical Areas Act will pass.  This legislation, which will strengthen the role of the Critical Areas Commission as well as extending the no-build buffer in rural areas from 100 feet to 300 feet will have a signficant impact on the Shore.  I think it will probably take some time and will require some support from the state to help the local governments (which have primary responsibility for enforcement) but I think this will ultimately have a significant impact in preventing uncontrolled development along the shoreline.

The Governor's budget include $50 million for a 'Chesapeake Bay Restoration Fund'.  That's been cut to $25 million and may disappear entirely as budget negotiations between the House and Senate continue.  Since it's not clear what the money will be used for, it's difficult to say what the impact will be here on the Shore.

A significant decrease in transfer tax receipts will mean a signficant decrease in money available for agricultural land preservation and Project Open Space.  Given the significance of these programs on the Shore in the past, I'm sure the decrease will be noticed here.

The Governor has proposed a bill to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Maryland by twenty-five percent by 2020.  It's not clear that this will pass in its present form or that the reduction would have a measurable impact here. 

Energy

The key element of the Governor's energy legislation is a bill to reduce per capita energy consumption by fifteen percent in the next seven years.  The bill was originally rejected by the Senate but has been reconsidered and passed.  It's likely to pass the House, too.  The bill allows the state to provide incentives to improve energy efficiency and also provides some rate relief for low-income residents.  The General Assembly has passed a bill to require energy efficiency measures in new or renovated state buildings and schools.  Finally, the state has reached an agreement with Constellation Energy to provide a one-time rebate to customers of about $170 and to get customers off the hook for the cost of eventual decommissioning of the Calvert Cliffs nuclear plants.

There are a lot of low-income households on the Shore, so the rate relief will be welcome.  For those able to take advantage of tax credits and rebates for investment in more efficient appliances or additional insulation this will be a boon.  For the rest, it will probably result in an eventual increase in rates.  Note that the Eastern Shore has been identified as an area where electricity costs are higher than necessary due to insufficient transmission capacity.  The legislation does nothing to address that.

Health

The budget provides a significant increase in funding for subsidized health insurance for low income residents.  That's a good thing for the state and the Shore.  Both houses have passed legislation that will provide a prescription subsidy for low and moderate-income seniors while they are in the medicare 'donut hole'.  This will have a positive impact here, too.

Transportation

Both houses have approved legislation authorizing local jurisdictions to use speed cameras in certain locations.  It remains to be seen whether any of the counties here take advantage of that.  Legislation to prohibit handheld use of cellphones while driving failed.  The transportation budget includes very little money for the Eastern Shore, but what's new. 

Education

The budget provide some additional funding for education.  A bill to raise the age at which students can drop out of school seems likely to fail unless additional funding can be found. 

Local Funding

The budget provides a slight (1.5%) increase in state aid to local jurisdictions.  While Worcester would see a slight decrease, both Wicomico and Somerset on the Lower Shore would get significant increases.  Final action on the budget hasn't been completed yet.

So, unless something dramatic happens in the next few days, the most significant legislation for the Shore probably is the update to the Critical Areas Act.  I'll post an update after the session ends.

A Growing Problem

Is this the future of the Eastern Shore?  The Maryland Department of Planning (MDP) seems to be worried that it is.  In a report released yesterday, they point out some worrisome trends.  From 1973 to 2002, the Shore lost almost 45 thousand acres of agricultural land, 71thousand acres of forest and added almost 117 thousand acres of developed land.  They project an increase of 160 thousand people over the next twenty-five years.

MDP points out, correctly, that growth on the Shore has not been particularly well managed.  A lot of the growth has come on large lots, outside of developed areas and without a whole lot of planning.  This has resulted, as noted above, in the loss of large amounts of farm and forest land and has caused significant problems with water supply and quality and other infrastructure.  MDP says, and I agree, that the towns and counties need to do a better job of planning and focus the growth in or adjacent to developed areas.

There's no question that growth has changed the nature of many of the Shore's small towns.  The problem, of course, is that many jurisdictions on the Shore, counties and towns, see growth asa sort of holy grail that will bring new, wealthier population and will provide badly needed resources to fund strained county and town budgets.  In addition, given the nature of rural politics, many local governments are heavily influenced by the views of developers, builders and others who stand to gain by unbridled growth.  More state oversight and control might add some needed backbone to local politicians when they're faced with demands from developers.

That said, I don't think the situation is quite as bad as some news articles have made it out to be.  A big chunk of the growth projected by MDP is in Cecil county where there is going to be some impact from the expansion at Aberdeen Proving Grounds and near the Bay Bridge where there are some developments popping up for those who commute to the Western Shore to work.

The obvious additional question is what are all these new residents of the Eastern Shore going to do?  While the cost of living here is lower than on the Western Shore, wages here are considerably lower.  There's not really much in the way of significant new industry either. 

Of course, a lot of people buy second homes on the Shore, and that has contributed signficantly to development.  But the bay bridges are growing more and more congested and Maryland has failed so spectatularly at selecting a location for a new bay crossing that no one even talks about it any more. 

Of course, that leaves retirees; and there are more and more retirees coming here.  And they do contribute to the one industry that is showing strong growth here - the medical industry.  Almost every hospital on the Shore is in growth mode, and they employ a lot of people.  But I'd be surprised if that many retirees actually show up here, given the effort other states are making to capture them. 

The real problem, I think, is up the road in Delaware where planning is virtually non-existent and growth controls are laughable.  The recently completed master plan for Sussex County, home to Rehoboth and Bethany, would allow ONE MILLION HOUSES in the county, far exceeding the capacity the infrastructure can support and destroying the natural beauty and rural character of the land.  That is the big threat we have to face here on the Shore.

 

Immigrant Workers

The Baltimore Sun and the Salisbury Daily Times both ran articles today on the crisis in the H2B (seasonal temporary worker) program, while the New York Times ran an article on problems caused by the limited number of H1B (professional or technical work) visas.

Many of the seasonal employees on the Eastern Shore have relied on the H2B visa program to fill their temporary jobs.  Crab picking houses, restaurants, landscaping and other seasonal employers have bought people in from other countries every year for a long time.  Unfortunately, due to the failure of Congress to extend a provision of the law that exempts returning workers from the 66,000 cap, many are unable to get the workers they need this year.

The impact of this is felt not only by the companies that are unable to get the workers they need, but also by the companies that supply them - the truckers, container manufacturers and haulers, etc.  A study by the University of Maryland of the crab industry indicated that each temporary crab picker here on a H2B visa created 2 and a half additional jobs. 

While there are those who say that these companies should just raise their wages and hire Americans, it's not clear how many Americans are willing to take these jobs which only run ten to twenty weeks.  With unemployment low in Maryland, where would the workers come from?  How much more would you be willing to pay for a restaurant meal or a pound of crabmeat to be sure that all the workers were American citizens? 

The problems cited by the New York Times are a bit different.  New York City is a world financial center, headquarters to many global firms and a major world banking center.  But many of the multi-national firms headquartered in NYC are reporting difficulty in getting the temporary visas they need for their exectives and top managers to work in their headquarters office.  Similarly, the big banks are reporting that they are unable to hire foreign graduates of American colleges and universities because of the shortage of H1B visas.

Alcoa, for example, has one of it's chief financial executives, Vannesa Lau, working in its Geneva offices because of the difficulty in getting a visa for her to work in New York.  There are plenty of similar stories.

This is important because New York doesn't compete with Cleveland or St. Louis or Phoenix, for the most part, it competes with London, Geneva, Frankfurt, Dubai, Hong Kong, Shanghai and other global financial centers that have more liberal visa requirements.

Where am I going with all this?  Well, it's all a piece of our national schizophrenia about immigrants and immigration.  Almost all of us are descended from immigrants (like those in the photo above) who came to America looking for a brighter future for them and their children.  We want America to be strong and competitive in the global economy and we want our businesses to be succesful and grow our domestic economy.  But the restrictions we place on foreigners who want to legally come here and work make that difficult or impossible in some cases.

Of course, we want everyone to obey our immigration laws.  But building a system of laws that sharply restricts legal immigration while simultaneously creating an economy that demands millions more workers than we have is a recipe for failure.  It's futile to waste billions and billions of dollars on immigration enforcement while we have a system that basically requires employers and employees to circumvent the law.  The real victims when we do that are ourselves.

I find it ironic to stroll down the boardwalk in Ocean City and see shirts for sale that say "Welcome to America, now speak English" in shops that are staffed largely by students from Ukraine, Romania, Russia and even Nepal (They're here on J1 visas)and whose English perhaps is not that good.  Have we forgotten that, when our ancestors arrived here they may have not spoken any English.  There are still pockets in some big cities where Italian, Polish, German, Chinese or Russian can be heard. 

So let's support comprehensive immigration reform.  And sure, it should include strong enforcement of our immigration laws.  But it should also include a reasonable opportunity for those who want to immigrate to our country, to help build its future and to become American - the 'tired, the poor, the huddled masses learning to breathe free' - as the Emma Lazerus poem engraved within the statue states and as we all remember.