Lost On The Shore

Looking forward to 2009

I've been busy on other projects, but it's time to get back to posting.  The 426th session of the Maryland General Assembly begins on January 14th and runs until April 13th, 2009.  The session will be, as always, in the historic State House which is reopening after a $10 million renovation.  The Maryland State House has the distinction of being the oldest state house in continuous operation.  It served as the U.S. Capitol in 1783-1784.  George Washington resigned his commission as Commander of the Continental Army in the Maryland State House; but enough of that.

For the most part, it's not going to be an enjoyable session.  There are a lot of contentious issues and, looming over everything, is the budget, which will have to embody significant cuts from earlier projections.  Let's take a look at what's on the table.

First and foremost, of course, is the budget.  Tax receipts continue to fall well below projects as the economy stalls and real estate values decline and the Governor has been playing a game of catchup in trying to trim the current budget to match revenues.  Next year, of course is looking worse.  The state could be looking at a deficit of as much as $1 billion with a general fund budget of about $16 billion (for the fiscal year beginning June 30, 2009.)

Of course, a lot of the projected deficit is not really due to a reduction in revenues, but rather to increases in the budget baseline - what it will cost to keep state services steady.  Due to a variety of factors - changes in student enrollment, changes in prison population, changes in the number of medicaid recipients, as well as cost increases, the amount required to provide the same level of services can increase.  One of the things the Governor and the General Assembly will have to look at is whether the state can afford to pay those increased costs in the face of stagnant or declining revenue.  A list of the 'adjustments' can be found here.  Take a look and see what you think.

In any case, it's clear that there are going to be cuts and that some of the cuts inevitably are going to fall on education and on aid to localities.  These two items are simply too large a proportion of the total budget to be ignored.  We've already heard complaints from Montgomery County and Baltimore City even though the first dime has yet to be cut from the 2010 budget.  I'm sure we'll hear much more.

Death Penalty I discussed in a recent post the issue of abolishing the death penalty in Maryland.  The commission that was put into place to study the issue and as a handy way to dodge the issue last session has made their report recommending that the death penalty be abolished and the Governor is going to introduce legislation to that effect.  While there is a solid majority in the House of Delegates to abolish the death penalty and what appears to be a smaller but viable majority in the Senate to do the same thing, it's not certain that it will pass.  Last session in died in a Senate Committee and there's a strong possibility it will happen again.

Speed Cameras  This issue will certainly come up again.  Following the successful introduction of speed cameras into Montgomery County, legislation to authorize localities around the state to install the devices passed both houses last year, but the bills were slightly different and the measures died in the end-of-year rush.  It's almost certain to be resurrected this year and likely to pass, generating waves of complaints from those who feel that speed limits are an affront to their manhood.

Smart Growth After years of fooling around with various kinds of 'smart growth' packages, the state seems to have finally realized that, since almost all zoning and development decisions are made at the local level and not at the state level, tougher legislation is required to override local prerogative if we want to control growth and development.  This will be a contentious issue.  County governments guard these authorities carefully since real estate developers and contractors are major contributors to local election contests.  The state is going to have a tough time here.

Universal Health Care A group of Marylanders is proposing that the state take steps to provide universal health care for Maryland residents.  Chances of this $15 billion proposal passing in this session are zero.  The state is already struggling with the budget and simply can't afford to add to it at this point.  Look for the proponents to keep on pushing, though.

Gasoline Tax  No, the Governor is not going to propose an increase to the gasoline tax.  Despite the shortfall in the state's transportation fund, there is no appetite for tax increases.  Instead, look for a proposal to replace the current cents-per-gallon tax with a tax based on a percentage of the sales tax.  That way, when the price of gasoline begins to climb again, the tax will climb along with it.  The state argues, with some justification, that as the price of road construction and maintenance increases, the dedicated taxes to support it also needs to increase.  This should be interesting.

Death Penalty

The most recent commission to examine the death penalty in Maryland released their report today.  The final report of the Maryland Commission on Capital Punishment can be found here.  The Commission voted 13 to 7 to recommend that capital punishment be abolished in the State of Maryland.  Of the seven commissioners who voted to retain capital punishment, six joined in a minority report which is included in the final report document.

Since 1978 when the Supreme Court reinstated the death penalty, five persons have been executed in Maryland, the latest in 2005.  Five more remain on death row.  Of the five executed, four were convicted in Baltimore County and one in Baltimore City.  Of the five remaining on death row, two are from Baltimore County, one from Baltimore City, one from Prince George's County and the fifth, Jody Miles, was convicted in Wicomico County in 1998.  

Since December of 2006, when the state's highest court ruled that the protocols used in Maryland to carry out the death penalty were improperly developed, there has been an effective moratorium on the death penalty here.  The Governor, who opposes the death penalty, has reluctantly moved toward ending the moratorium by ordering that new procecures be drafted.

The death penalty has been contentious in Maryland for years.  Last year the General Assembly effectively ducked the issue by ordering the creation of the Commission to examine the issue.  This is not the first commission to do so and there have also been several 'studies'.

Opponents of the death penalty make several arguments:

• that state-sanctioned executions are immoral and/or unethical;
• that significant racial disparity exists in the imposition of the death penalty - blacks who kill whites are much more likely to be sentenced to death as opposed to blacks who kill blacks or whites who kill whites;
• that significant jurisidicational disparity exists.  For example, the death penalty is much more likely to be imposed in Baltimore County than elsewhere in the state and this disparity based on where the crime is committed is seen as arbitrary and capricious;
• that, due to a variety of factors, death penalty cases are much more expensive to prosecute, defend and carry out than other cases, placing a significant cost on Maryland taxpayers ($186 million between 1978 and 1999 according to a study by the Urban Institute; and
• that there is a risk of innocent people being executed.

Proponents of the death penalty dispute each of these arguments.  They contend that there is no real racial disparity - that the appearance of racial disparity in some studies is really the result of jursidictional disparity.  That is, since most death penalty cases originate in Baltimore County and most murder victims in Baltimore County are white, statistics will appear to show that the death penalty is predominately sought against those who murdered whites.

Proponents defend the jurisidictional disparity as simply a democratic exercise of local option.  They acknowledge that death penalty cases are more expensive to prosecute and carry out, but believe the study by the Urban Institute overstates the case because it looks at opportunity cost rather than out-of-pocket cost.

Proponents of the death penalty believe that the chance of a guilty person being executed is very small, particulary given the powerful evidence that DNA analysis can now provide.  Proponents further believe that the death penalty is a powerful deterent to crime and that it needs to be part of the state's arsenal of weapons to apply to the most heinous of crimes.  

Finally, death penalty proponents believe, to put it bluntly, that some crimes deserve the death penalty.  This notion of retributional justice is common to many of us - that the punishment should fit the crime, an eye for an eye, measure for measure, etc. 

This is going to be another contentious issue for the General Assembly.  Last year, it was approved by the House of Delegates but was tied up in a committee in the Senate and never came to the floor.  That could easily happen again.

Personally, I think it's time to abolish the death penalty in Maryland and replace it with the option of life in prison without parole.

First, the reality is that death penalty cases can drag on forever - three of the current residents of death row in Maryland were convicted in 1984 - twenty-four years ago.  Such a lengthy period of uncertainty is expensive for the state and difficult for the families of the victims.

Second, I do believe it's possible for an innocent person to be convicted, even with modern investigative techniques.  There have been numerous cases both in Maryland and nationwide where people convicted of capital crimes and sentenced to death were later found to be innocent.  The frailty of even eyewitness testimony is well established and there have been numerous cases of false confessions.  Once an innocent person is executed, there is no way to undo the sentence.

Third, the idea that the death penalty is a deterrent to crime assumes that the decision to commit a crime results from a rational, logic-based thought process that weighs the benefit of committing the crime against the chance of getting caught and the perceived cost of the likely penalty.  I don't think this is ever the case.  

While I understand the argument for retributive justice, I don't think the purpose of the criminal justice system in Maryland is to exact revenge, rather the purpose is to keep us safe.  

So, let's hope the General Assembly can put together the intestinal fortitude to do the right thing this time instead of putting the decision off yet again.  While some surveys show that a majority of Marylanders support the death penalty, only a minority support it if an alternative of life without parole is offered.  That sounds like a good option to me.

[The image is of the 1833 painting by Paul Delaroche of the Execution of Lady Jane Gray. It currently hangs in the National Gallery in London]    

  

A Final Look At The Election On The Shore

In my last post I took a look at the election results on the Eastern Shore where the Democrat Frank Kratovil ended eighteen years of Republican success in the First Congressional District by narrowly beating Republican Andy Harris.  I also pointed out that, despite Kratovil's win, the Shore still looked pretty Republican as Democrat Barack Obama got pasted by Republican John McCain in every county on the Shore.

Let's take a look at those numbers again.

Eastern Shore Results for President - 2008

County	Obama	McCain	Others	% Obama	% McCain
Caroline	4971	8015	192	37.72%	60.82%
Cecil	17665	23855	849	41.69%	56.30%
Dorchester	6912	8168	163	45.35%	53.59%
Kent	4953	4905	143	49.53%	49.05%
Queen Anne's	8575	15087	303	35.78%	62.95%
Somerset	4779	5037	98	48.20%	50.81%
Talbot	9035	10995	252	44.55%	54.21%
Wicomico	19436	21849	471	46.55%	52.33%
Worcester	11374	15607	316	41.67%	57.17%

Those are some pretty convincing numbers.  Except for Somerset and Kent counties - the two smallest - McCain dominated everywhere. 

But, if we look back at the 2004 Presidential contest, we see an interesting phenomenon.

Presidential Results - 2004

County	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry %	Bush %
Caroline	3810	7396	142	33.57	65.17
Cecil	14680	22556	419	38.99	59.90
Dorchester	5411	7801	119	40.59	58.52
Kent	4278	4900	97	46.12	52.83
Queen Anne's	7070	14489	222	32.46	66.52
Somerset	4034	4884	73	44.87	54.32
Talbot	7367	11288	197	39.08	59.88
Wicomico	15137	21998	328	40.41	58.72
Worcester	9648	15349	218	38.26	60.87

As we can see, the Democratic ticket improved their showing in 2008 in every county on the Shore.  In most counties the improvement was in the 3 - 4 % range, but in Wicomico there was a big 6% jump and in Talbot the increase was 5%.  These numbers not only offer hope to Democrats that they will do even better in the next Presidential election, but also point to possible gains in the state and local elections in 2010. 

So keep your eyes on the Shore in 2010, we may have some surprises here.