In my last post I took a look at the election results on the Eastern Shore where the Democrat Frank Kratovil ended eighteen years of Republican success in the First Congressional District by narrowly beating Republican Andy Harris. I also pointed out that, despite Kratovil's win, the Shore still looked pretty Republican as Democrat Barack Obama got pasted by Republican John McCain in every county on the Shore.
Let's take a look at those numbers again.
|County||Obama||McCain||Others||% Obama||% McCain|
Those are some pretty convincing numbers. Except for Somerset and Kent counties - the two smallest - McCain dominated everywhere.
But, if we look back at the 2004 Presidential contest, we see an interesting phenomenon.
|County||Kerry||Bush||Other||Kerry %||Bush %|
As we can see, the Democratic ticket improved their showing in 2008 in every county on the Shore. In most counties the improvement was in the 3 - 4 % range, but in Wicomico there was a big 6% jump and in Talbot the increase was 5%. These numbers not only offer hope to Democrats that they will do even better in the next Presidential election, but also point to possible gains in the state and local elections in 2010.
So keep your eyes on the Shore in 2010, we may have some surprises here.