Lost On The Shore

A Closer Look at the Election

Thanksgiving is over, Christmas shopping has begun, the hunters are out in full force and it's cold here on the Eastern Shore.  So I guess this is as good a time as any to take a closer look at results of the recent election, particularly here on The Shore.

The Eastern Shore has, for the past twenty years or so, been a Republican stronghold.  Wayne Gilchrest won nine elections in a row for the first district congressional seat and Republicans hold every state senate seat on the Shore.  Democrats were understandably pleased when Gilchrest was defeated in the Republican primary by a much more conservative candidate, giving them a fighting chance to win the seat.  They were ecstatic when Frank Kratovil won the seat for the Democrats.

With that win, there is only one Republican left in Maryland's congressional delegation, Democrats hold every statewide office and dominate the legislature.  Republicans were devastated by the results and Democrats looked forward to a new day on the Eastern Shore.  But is it really?  It's well known that Democrat Frank Kratovil won every county on the Shore, but does that really tell the story?  Let's take a closer look.

Eastern Shore Results for First District - 2008

County	Kratovil	Harris	Davis	% Kratovil	% Harris
Caroline	6702	5782	398	52.03%	44.88%
Cecil	20089	19242	1283	49.46%	47.38%
Dorchester	8344	5961	428	58.63%	40.46%
Kent	6406	3182	175	65.62%	32.59%
Queen Anne's	12752	10426	416	54.05%	44.19%
Somerset	5668	3775	177	58.92%	39.24%
Talbot	10985	8533	372	55.23%	42.90%
Wicomico	22841	17023	834	56.12%	41.83%
Worcester	14076	11845	532	53.21%	44.78%

We can see that Kratovil did well in every jurisdiction and, with the possible exception of Cecil County, would certainly have won every county even if Libertarian Richard James Davis had not been in the race.  Kratovil's margin was more than seven percent in every county on the Shore except for Cecil and reached thirty-three percent in Kent County - the home of Representative Gilchrest who crossed party lines and endorsed Frank Kratovil.  Looking at these numbers one would be tempted to say that the Democrats are dominant on the Eastern Shore.

But, of course, this is just one race.  Let's look at the Eastern Shore results of the Presidential race.

Eastern Shore Results for President - 2008

County	Obama	McCain	Others	% Obama	% McCain
Caroline	4971	8015	192	37.72%	60.82%
Cecil	17665	23855	849	41.69%	56.30%
Dorchester	6912	8168	163	45.35%	53.59%
Kent	4953	4905	143	49.53%	49.05%
Queen Anne's	8575	15087	303	35.78%	62.95%
Somerset	4779	5037	98	48.20%	50.81%
Talbot	9035	10995	252	44.55%	54.21%
Wicomico	19436	21849	471	46.55%	52.33%
Worcester	11374	15607	316	41.67%	57.17%

These numbers tell a much different story.  With the exception of Kent County where Obama/Biden edged out McCain/Palin by 48 votes, the Republican ticket dominated every county.  

How can we explain this discrepancy?  Well, for one thing, Frank Kratovil is a conservative Democrat and was able to convince voters that he would be a moderate in Congress, much like Wayne Gilchrest.  Gilchrest, of course, was much beloved on the Shore and his loss in a bitter primary contest to Andy Harris certainly cost Harris some votes, as did Gilchrest's endorsement of Kratovil.  And certainly the fact that Kratovil makes his home on the Eastern Shore won him some votes here.

But there's more to the story and I'll save that for my next post.  
 

Stimulus That Will Benefit Us

It's good to hear that President-Elect Obama is planning on more fiscal stimulus for the American economy and even better to hear that he plans to stimulate the economy by investing in infrastructure rather than just sending out checks to everyone.  We have been ignoring our infrastructure requirements in this country for some time and the results are definitely showing.  So, since I know Barack is reading this blog, here are some suggestions:

High Speed Rail Most other industrialized countries are far ahead of us here.  Japan has been running their Shinkansen 'bullet trains' since 1964.  France began working on their TGV (train à grande vitesse, "high-speed train") in 1976 and the Paris-Lyon line opened in 1981.  The phenomenal success of the TGV has encouraged the French government to build six additional lines and other countries in Europe have built their own high speed networks - the Thalys in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, Eurostar linking Britain to France and Belgium as well as systems in Spain, Italy, Sweden and Norway.  High-speed rail networks are also being built in China, Taiwan and South Korea.

Here in the United States we don't have true high speed rail.  The Acela trains in the Northeast Corridor (Washington-New York-Boston) are called 'high-speed', but track conditions limit them to a top speed of about 125 mph rather than the 200 mph common on true high speed rail.

High speed rail doesn't make sense for much of the United states - the distances are too great to compete with air travel.  However, in the northeast corridor, the Chicago area and possibly the Dallas/Fort Worth/Houston area, high speed rail will produce city-to-city travel times that are considerably less than comparable air service while producing less pollution and being less subject to weather delays.  As an added bonus, the elimination of dozens of flights between Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Boston and New York will do much to reduce air travel delays in the country by reducing congestion in the New York City area.

Construction of these lines will generate thousand of jobs and the construction of the trainsets, signalling equipment and other ancillary requirements will generate thousands more. A $50 billion commitment here will get us off to a good start. 

School Construction States and local jurisdictions have been falling behind on funding the expansion and replacement of existing school buildings.  Many existing school buildings were built in the 1950s and 1960s and need either replacement or substantial renovation.  Further, existing schools are being stretched well beyond capacity.  Temporary classroom buildings are a common sight throughout the country.  Finally, most of our existing schools do not meet today's technological requirements. 

The need is tremendous.  In 1995, the General Accounting Office estimated the backlog of school construction needs at $112 billion.  In 1999, the Education Department estimated the cost at $127 billion.  The National Education Association in 2002 came up with a number of $322 billion including technology improvements.  There's no doubt the backlog has grown.  Right here in my local jurisdiction of 50,000 people there are more than $100 million in unmet needs.  The State of New Jersey estimates a $30 billion backlog in that state alone. 

An investment of $400 billion will go a long way toward eliminating the backlog.  Further it will provide work for thousands of smaller construction firms around the country and for hundreds of thousands of construction workers who are out of work due to the housing slump.  As a bonus, the Department of Energy estimates that such a program would reduce energy costs for schools by some $2 billion a year.

Roads and Bridges We haven't done a good job of maintaining our road system let alone pay for the expansion needed to meet current demand.  Tens of thousands of bridges are deficient, pavement is crumbling all around the country and huge traffic backups are way of life.  A new commitment of $500 billion in Federal money will make a major dent in the backlog here, will stimulate the construction industry all across the country and put many Americans back to work.  There's no reason to delay here.

Mass Transit Along with expanded spending on roads and bridges must come renewed investment into mass transit.  We need our cities to work efficiently.  Like it or not, the vast majority of economic activity in the United States is generated in cities, not in rural areas.  An investment of $100 billion now will generate huge dividends in the future in terms of increased efficiency and lower energy use. In addition, of course, we'll see tens of thosuands of new jobs created. 

Let's start now.  We have no time to lose.

[The photo is of a Eurostar and a Thalys train in the Gare du Nord in Paris]

Don't Cut My Stuff!

The opening of the 2009 session of the Maryland General Assembly is less than two months away and, of course, the maneuvering has already started.  As expected, the early action is all about money.

Over at the Maryland Politics Watch, Adam Pagnucco reports that Rich Madaleno has become chairman of the Montgomery County State Senate delegation.  Madaleno wastes no time in setting out his priorities for the year - make sure Montgomery County doesn't lose any money in the upcoming session.  He wants to be sure that the state formula for funding teacher retirement (which primarily benefits Montgomery County) isn't changed and he wants to be sure that Montgomery County's school construction allocation is not less than the $46 million they receive this year.

The Baltimore Sun reports today that 'education advocates' including the Maryland State Teachers Association, the Maryland Association of Boards of Education and others are already running ads encouraging the General Assembly not to cut state education funding (which has increased by $1.3 billion over the past six years.  In fact, they go beyond advocating that funds not be cut, they want an increase.

Now, readers of this blog know that I support education - it's the key to success in a global economy and the source of much of the prosperity Maryland enjoys.  And certainly Montgomery County has a lot of needs, and their legislative caucus has the clout to get what they want, by and large.

But the state is facing a deficit of $1 billion or more in the coming fiscal year.  When the richest jurisdiction in the state announces that it won't accept any cuts to the largesse it gets from the state, what is the message to the poorer jurisdictions - curl up and die? 

I'm not thinking here of my own county.  Worcester has sufficient resources for the time being even though the county commissioner just postponed $100 million in school renovations due to falling revenue.  $100 million is nothing to sneeze at in a county with only 50,000 residents.  But I'm concerned about Somerset, Dorchester, Garrett, Queen Anne's, Allegany and Caroline counties.  

By and large these counties have average wages between 50% and 60% of the average wage in Montgomery County.  But if we protect the big, wealthy jurisdictions then I guess the small, poor jurisdictions will take it on the chin in the budget game.

It's the same situation with education funding.  Education is critically important.  But primary, secondary and higher education account for about 37% of the state budget.  Protecting the education budget, or even increasing it as the advocates demand would mean that all of the cuts would come somewhere else.  So I guess that means the education advocates want to slash funding for health services for the uninsured and underinsured, cut funding for natural resources and protection of the environment, reduce transportation funding even further and cut funding for public safety.

So let's stop drawing lines in the sand and trying to bully our way to getting a bigger piece of the state pie.  The Governor and the General Assembly are going to have a tough enough time trying to deal with the fiscal realities we are facing.  Don't make it harder.   

Going Down?

As the national and global economies continue to deteriorate, we're fortunate that Maryland is in a better position than most states.  We're relatively wealthy, our economy is largely service based and a steady stream of Federal government expenditures supports much of the state economy. 

Nevertheless, we're definitely going to feel the effects.  A glance at the newspapers over the past couple of days reveals that state tax revenues continue to fall, the unemployment rate continues to climb and foreclosures are still climbing.

Many local jursidictions are taking steps to reduce their expenditures in view of expected revenue reductions in the coming years.  Montgomery County is negotiating with the employee unions to see if they can reduce or defer the pay raises that had been negotiated for the coming year and the county executive has proposed cuts in services.  Baltimore mayor Dixon has announced she will propose up to $200 million in cuts and Prince George's County is looking at possible cuts.

It would be nice to see the jurisdictions here on The Shore being a bit more proactive in looking at cuts.  In less than two months the new legislative session begins and we can be sure that the state is going to further cut support to local governments in an attempt to close the projected state shortfall of $1 billion or more. 

With Maryland's peculiar three-year cycle of real estate appraisal, the local governments have been somewhat insulated from the effects of falling property values, but that's going to change soon.  Because increases in assessments are phased in over three years, assessed values in many jurisdictions appear to be still rising.  But properties assessed in 2006 when values were high will be assessed again in 2009 and it's very likely that there will be a decline in values most places.  Thus the property tax base will begin to decline. 

So keep an eye on the county governments and see what steps they are taking to deal with the issue.  The sooner they start, the better.

Sidetracked

Well, it looks as thought the bid by the Club For Growth to put their man, Andy Harris, into Congress, may have been sidetracked.  After the first round of counting absentee ballots, Democrat Frank Kratovil's lead has increased to 2,003 votes.  Tomorrow the election boards will look at provisional ballots and then go on to count the remaining absentee ballots.  At this point it doesn't appear as though there are enough of these to help Andy Harris overcome Kratovil's lead.  Indeed, the Associated Press has called the race for Kratovil.

The First District was designed to be a Republican District.  Before this election, the Republicans had held the seat for 18 years.  A large majority of state legislative seats in the District are held by Republicans.  So how did Kratovil manage to eke out a victory?  Everyone has their opinion, of course.  Michael Swartz over at Monoblogue has this interesting take on the election.  I see four factors that led to Kratovil's apparent victory.

First, of course, is the defeat of Wayne Gilchrest in the primary.  Gilchrest was a moderate Republican who was much loved by many on The Shore, Republican and Democrat alike.  His defeat in the primary but the more right-wing Andy Harris with substantial out-of-state financial support was disheartening to many Eastern Shore voters and opened the door to a Democratic challenge.  

Second is the candidacy of Barrack Obama.  While John McCain handily won the Eastern Shore jurisdictions, Obama's candidacy bought a surge of new voters and bought many to the polls that may not have voted otherwise.  It appears that a large number of African-American voters, in particular, may have provided the margin to help push Kratovil over the top.

Kratovil was able to compete financially with Harris.  With Gilchrest out of the race, Kratovil was able to attract funds from the DCCC and other national sources to offset the resources that Harris was able to get from out of state.  If Gilchrest had won the primary, Kratovil would never have gotten that money and it would have been no contest, like many in the past.

Of course, having the Libertarian Candidate, Davis, in the race helped too.  If Andy Harris had gotten those votes, he would have been victorious.  

Republicans seem to think that Frank Kratovil is going to lay down a liberal voting record in Washington that will help defeat him in two years.  I don't think so; Frank seems to me to be a more conservative, 'Blue Dog', Democrat who will build a moderate voting record, splitting with his party when necessary to reflect the temper of his district.  In 2010, with two years of incumbency behind him, he will be in a stronger spot to defend his seat, particularly if he couples a moderate voting record with good constituent service and good fundraising.

After 2010, of course, the situation will change.  The surge in Democratic registrations this year will provide some flexibility to shift more Democratic voters into the First District when redistricting rolls around.  

So, for now, let's keep our fingers crossed that the AP is right and the 2,003 margin holds up.  Then we can take some time to relax and hopefully savor a victory before we start to look at 2010. 

The Voters Have Decided

It was an exhausting campaign that seemed to go on forever, but the voters have spoken (although it's not clear in some cases what they say) and it's time to look ahead.

Slots

After many years there is finally a clear decision that we will have slot machines in Maryland.  The vote was not close; slots won in every jurisdiction with a 400,000 vote margin statewide.  The issue now moves to implementation.  The Governor is already moving to identify and appoint commission members who will oversee the bidding for the licenses.  In Baltimore, the city has already moved to purchase land in South Baltimore which the city hopes will be used for a casino there.

Those opposed to slots haven't given up, of course.  There are going to be zoning battles and other rear-guard actions.  The fact that slots won in every jurisdiction, though, is going to give local politicians pause in how hard they can fight to delay the inevitable.  In Anne Arundel County, for example, slots won overwhelmingly, as they did in Baltimore City, Allegany County and Cecil County.  Here in Worcester, it was a little tighter although there was a majority in favor of slots.  

The state is going to have to be very open and transparent in how they issue regulations, select operators and manage the process.  Any hint of collusion or back room deals could delay things for a long time.

Early Voting

The constitutional amendment to allow early voting also passed by a large margin.  To me it seems that the primary effect of this will be in the large jurisdictions of the Western Shore where voters frequently encounter large lines on election day.  Given the busy lives that many live, the ability to choose one of several days on which to vote seems as though it will make life a bit easier and perhaps improve turnout.  Since the large jurisdictions are primarily Democratic, it will likely improve Democratic margins statewide, but it's hard to tell how much.  I guess we'll find out in 2010.

First District

It's definitely a nail-biter here.  As expected, Frank Kratovil did well on the Eastern Shore while Andy Harris did better on the Western Shore - particularly in Harford County.  Kratovil's 900 vote margin in Tuesday's voting will have to withstand more than 28,000 absentee ballots that have been returned in the district.  Registered Dems outnumber Republicans by about 300 in the number of returned ballots and the majority of the ballots are from the Eastern Shore, where Kratovil led in every county in Tuesday's voting.  While counting might continue for several more days as more ballots arrive, chances are we'll know the winner tonight.  I'm hoping Frank will pull it out - I think the odds are in his favor.

Presidential Voting

Barack Obama received 61.4% of the votes on Tuesday compared to 37.0% for John McCain.  As expected, Obama's huge margins in Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Montgomery County, Prince George's County and Howard County overwhelmed McCain wins in the smaller jurisdictions. 

The impact of the large number of newly registered voters was felt across Maryland, though, as John McCain trailed George Bush's 2004 share of the vote in virtually every jurisdiction.  The Republican Party is going to have to rethink its strategy if it is going to have any chance in 2010 to win a statewide office or elect a significant number of state legislators.  It will be interesting to watch.