Year of Change

Like everyone else who follows politics, I'm impressed with the results of the recent congressional elections.  What was more or less the 'solid south' for the GOP is not looking so solid anymore.  Let's take a look at the results.

The 14th Congressional District in Illinois, formerly home to powerful GOP Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert has long elected Republicans.  Hastert routinely got 60 percent or more of the vote.  Bush won the district with 56 percent of the vote.  But in a special election in March, a Democrat - Bill Foster - was elected to replace Hastert. 

Louisiana's 6th district has also be reliably Republican until now with Republicans routinely garnering 70 - 80 percent of the vote.  Bush got 59 percent of the vote in 2004.  Yet Democrat Don Cazayoux beat Republican Woody Jenkins in the special election held May 3.  It's worth noting for our purposes that Jenkins was supported by the Club For Growth. 

Finally, in Mississippi-01, long a Republican stronghold where Bush got 62% of the votes in 2004, Democrat Travis Childers handily beat Republican Gred Davis 54 percent to 46 percent.  In what might presage the November presidential contest, Republican attempts to link Childers to Obama appears to have backfired as there seems to have been a surge in African-American voters.

These three races seem to be just a symptom of a Democratic surge nationwide, and one that will have an effect here in Maryland.  After heavy losses in the northeast in the last election, Republicans seem poised to lose several of their few remaining seats in the region.  In Connecticut, Republican Chris Shays is facing a tough race after barely winning in 2004.  In New York, long-term Republican incumbents Jim Walsh and Tom Reynolds are retiring and Republican Vito Fossella seems to be in a bit of trouble after being arrested for drunk driving while on the way to see his mistress and the child he fathered with her.

In New Jersey, Republicans James Saxton and Mike Ferguson are retiring in districts that are very competitive and are likely to lean Democratic this year.  Republican Tom Davis is retiring in Northern Virginia and the district is likely to go Democratic.

That brings us down to Maryland-01.  With the defeat of incumbent Republican Wayne Gilchrest, the Democrats have their best chance in years to win this district, helping extend the Democratic sweep down the Atlantic seaboard.  The Republican primary campaign was particularly bitter and divisive.  We've already seen several Republicans - former supporters of Gilchrest, express their support of Democrat Frank Kratovil.  I expect a lot of strong Gilchrest supporters to either sit on their hands this fall or support Kratovil.

A surge in Democratic registrations continues in the district and in the state.  In April, for example, 12,712 voters registered as Democrats, while only 4,577 registered as Republicans.  In Baltimore County, home of Republican candidate Andy Harris, there were 2,613 new Democratic registrations vs. 781 new Republican registrations.

With a well-organized campaign, lots of enthusiastic new voters and a Democratic groundswell even in what used to be Republican strongholds, Frank Kratovil has a clear path to victory in November despite the tons of money wealthy outsiders will throw in to support Andy Harris.  It will be good to see.